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Journal of Youth and Adolescence
Gepubliceerd in:

01-03-2009 | Empirical Research

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

Auteurs: Lila Kazemian, David P. Farrington, Marc Le Blanc

Gepubliceerd in: Journal of Youth and Adolescence | Uitgave 3/2009

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Abstract

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.
vorige artikel Parents, Friends, and Romantic Partners: Enmeshment in Deviant Networks and Adolescent Delinquency Involvement
volgende artikel The Impact of Neighborhood Disadvantage and Exposure to Violence on Self-Report of Antisocial Behavior Among Girls in the Juvenile Justice System
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Alleen toegankelijk voor geautoriseerde gebruikers
Voetnoten
1
Analyses need to account for exposure time and deaths. Among British males, incarceration is not very widespread and even among those who had been incarcerated, the periods of incapacitation were relatively short (Kazemian and Farrington 2006). Among French-Canadian males, convictions that occurred during periods of incarceration were also documented, namely offenses committed in prison or during temporary leaves. Therefore, periods of incapacitation are not a substantial issue in this study. The same applies to deaths, since individuals are only included in the analyses if they completed the interview in both periods included in the comparison. Hence, if they died before the interview, it follows that they did not complete the subsequent interview. Detailed information about attrition can be found in previous publications (Le Blanc and Fréchette 1989; Morizot and Le Blanc 2003).
 
2
Initially, the intent was to use a measure that would account for changes in frequency, versatility and seriousness of offending (Le Blanc and Loeber 1998). However, frequency and versatility were too highly correlated (r > 0.70). The inclusion of both frequency and versatility in the same scale would thus appear to be redundant, as declines in frequency also involve declines in versatility. Moreover, Morizot and Le Blanc (2007, p. 68) found that “The general patterns of results for versatility and frequency of criminal activity were essentially the same”. While gravity scores at age 18 were significantly correlated with gravity scores at age 32, none of the coefficients were excessively high in either self-reports (Montreal: r = 0.16; London: r = 0.27) or official records (Montreal: r = 0.42; London: r = 0.61).
 
3
At age 17, questions relating to school no longer seemed relevant, as most French-Canadian males had left school in the previous two years or earlier (80%, n = 316). Since most males were either currently working at the time of the interview or had worked in the two years prior to the interview (87%, n = 346), questions relating to the employment status were included instead. Although questions relating to school may be more relevant in a contemporary sample, the social context was quite different at the time when the study males were young adults (mid to late 1970s). Higher education was uncommon among the males in both samples, and employment variables (status, attachment, instability, etc.) were important sources of social control during that period.
 
4
Some have argued that measuring the delinquency of peers in adolescence is tautological, since it is always very highly correlated with offending (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). The correlation between the number of delinquent friends and offending frequency is significant, but not excessively high (r = 0.27, p < .001). Thus, it does not appear problematic to include a measure of peer delinquency in the analyses. Multicollinearity was not an issue with any of the variables included in the analyses.
 
5
Unfortunately, questions relating to techniques of neutralization were not available for the British sample. We would have hoped to include a wider range of cognitive predispositions identified in the literature on sex offending and cognitive-behavioral therapy. However, data constraints limited our ability to include more cognitive measures.
 
6
It was not possible to include the early twenties in the analyses. Only sub-samples of the initial 411 British males and 470 adjudicated males were interviewed in the twenties, which resulted in insufficient sample sizes for the analyses carried out in this study.
 
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Metagegevens
Titel
Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?
Auteurs
Lila Kazemian
David P. Farrington
Marc Le Blanc
Publicatiedatum
01-03-2009
Uitgeverij
Springer US
Gepubliceerd in
Journal of Youth and Adolescence / Uitgave 3/2009
Print ISSN: 0047-2891
Elektronisch ISSN: 1573-6601
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-008-9338-z

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